Palestinian Opinions Post Gaza

The results of the public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) during the period 29-31 January 2009 show that the majority of respondents (46.7%) believed that Hamas came out of the war victorious compared with only 9.8% who said that Israel won the war. Over one-third, 37.4%, said that neither side achieved victory in this war.

A striking finding in this field poll is the disparity between opinions in the West Bank and those in the Gaza Strip on most of the issues tackled in the poll. For example, 53.3% of respondents in the West Bank believed that Hamas won the recent war, while 35.2% of respondents in Gaza felt the same.

The poll, with a random sample of 1,198 respondents, found a rise in the popularity -- especially in the West Bank -- of the Hamas movement, its leaders, and its government alongside a decline in the popularity of the Fatah movement, its leaders, and its government.

The percentage of those who would vote for Hamas if PLC elections were held today rose to 28.6% in this poll compared with 19.3% last April. On the other hand, the popularity of the Fatah movement declined from 34% last April to 27.9% in this poll.

This change was also reflected in the level of public trust in the two movements. Trust in Hamas rose from 16.6% last November to 27.7% in this poll. With regard to Fatah, popular trust in the movement declined from 31.3% to 26% in the same period. It is clear from the poll that the rise in Hamas's popularity is due to an increase in its popularity in the West Bank -- it rose from 12.8% last November to 26.5% in this poll.

For the complete article and a link to download the full report click here

This brings up a lot of questions for me- is Hamas interested in building a Palestinian state? What does the rising support for Hamas in the larger Palestinian population mean? In some ways its obvious where it is coming from.. but what does it mean for the future? I keep hearing that Fatah is the partner to work with, not Hamas - but if the people support Hamas (and increasingly so) then what does that even mean?

And today, in light of the Israeli election results, what does the future hold?

Kadima won the most seats in the new Knesset, but the Likud-led right-wing would constitute the larger bloc.

Is it a positive sign that Kadima (the centrist party made up of former leaders in both Likud - conservative - and Labor - more liberal) will be in charge? Will Livni (head of Kadima and therefore in line to be PM) be able to make a successful coalition? Will Likud successfully block her formation of a coalition? And when Livni says she wants to change the government, what changes does she mean?

From The Jerusalem Post:

With 99.7 percent of the votes counted, Kadima was narrowly leading Likud with a predicted 28 mandates, while the latter had garnered a predicted 27 seats. Israel Beiteinu was expected to earn 15 mandates, Labor 13, Shas 11, United Arab List four, United Torah Judaism five, National Union four, Hadash four, Meretz three, Bayit Hayehudi three, and Balad three.

The final results, including votes from soldiers and emissaries abroad, will only be published on February 18.